What the data shows
Common App reports the average applicant applies to roughly seven to nine schools. The problem isn't the number, it's the construction. A list of the top-ten ranked names plus two safeties is built on brand, not on fit.
What families should do differently
A student with a strong environmental-science direction may be far more competitive at a school that prizes it than at one where they're one of forty thousand applicants. Fit is different for every student, so the list should be too.
How Tafel uses this
Tafel builds the list from the student's evidence and intended major outward, balancing reach, target, and likely, and flags when a list is prestige-heavy.